October was a waiting month, although the days themselves were busy. Every municipality and regional district went through its quadrennial election steps, and a snap provincial election layered on top of them. Together they stretched the Chamber’s scheduling to its limit.

We managed. A few provincial-related events were postponed until after the election, and we pulled together all-candidates forums for the community on short notice. Those are done, the results are in, and attention now turns to what a new government means for local business. And, today (October 28) the Bank of Canada rate was raised to 2.5 on “Upward Revisions to Inflation Forecasts” and “Resilient Economic Growth”. Not unexpected.

Dates to look out for:

City of Kelowna

  • Inaugural Meeting: Monday, November 2, 2026, at 7:00 PM at the Mary Irwin Theatre inside the Rotary Centre for the Arts (where the mayor and councillors are officially sworn in; open to the public).
  • First Regular Council Meeting: Monday, November 9, 2026 (with AM and PM regular sessions typically occurring at 9:00 AM and 1:30 PM)

Province of BC

  • Return Day, when the writs are returned, is November 18, 2026. (Kelowna Centre riding remains undecided up to that date)

OUTLOOK FOR LOCAL BUSINESSES WITH A NEW GOVERNMENT

The B.C. Conservatives won a majority on October 24. The preliminary count gives them 61 of 93 seats, with leads in three more; the NDP holds 26 and the Greens 2. Elections BC’s final count runs November 6–10, with final results due November 18. Interim leader Lorne Doerkson is premier-designate, and the new government is to be sworn in later in November.

Locally, Gavin Dew (Kelowna-Mission), Pavneet Singh (Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream) and Macklin McCall (West Kelowna-Peachland) were elected as Conservatives. Kelowna Centre is not settled. Kristina Loewen led Loyal Wooldridge by 132 votes on election night, and mail-in and other outstanding ballots will be counted in early November.

Below is our read of what the change means for the files our members raise most often. These are our expectations, not announcements.

Foreign buyer ban

Two separate measures apply in Kelowna. The federal ban on residential purchases by non-Canadians expires January 1, 2027, and Finance Minister Champagne has said Ottawa is still weighing a lapse, an extension or a narrower replacement. The Province’s 20 per cent additional property transfer tax on foreign

buyers is permanent and applies in the Central Okanagan. Mr. Doerkson said in the October 14 leaders’ debate that he would keep the foreign buyers tax in place. If so, a non-Canadian buying in Kelowna would still pay an extra $200,000 on a $1 million purchase whatever Ottawa decides. Local realtors describe foreign buyers as a small share of Okanagan demand. We expect any change after January 1 to be modest and concentrated in higher-end and recreational properties. Our expectation is that Ottawa will extend the ban or replace it with a narrower rule rather than let it lapse outright; the November 5 budget is the first place to look.

Mr. Doerkson has said he will keep both the foreign buyers tax and the speculation and vacancy tax in place.

Speculation and vacancy tax

Mr. Doerkson gave the same commitment on the speculation and vacancy tax: “I will keep those in place.” The NDP’s platform would have raised the tax by one percentage point and added a 2 per cent tax on condos left unsold for over a year. With a Conservative government, we expect neither to proceed. The tax itself is likely to stay as is unless the independent review of provincial finances, which Mr. Doerkson says will begin immediately after the swearing-in, recommends otherwise.

Bill 44 – What will the new government do?

Local governments which are coming back after the municipal elections are looking at the new government: to see if provincial housing legislation which forced new bylaws and OCPs stays the course, or is modified. While the City of Kelowna often exceeded the Province’s targets set in 2024, there has been pushback on the loss of public hearings, and infill density.

PST expansion

On September 18 the former government paused the PST expansion to professional services, which was to take effect October 1, through a temporary regulation. The Province estimated the pause saves about $260 million in 2026-27. A pause is not a repeal, and the Legislature has not yet acted. We expect the new government to leave the expansion paused, and the open question is whether it will be repealed in law. Platform comparisons also list a Conservative commitment to suspend PST on business equipment, software and Canadian alcohol. If confirmed, that would matter to members who invest in equipment and technology, and to wineries and distilleries. The constraint is the Province’s fiscal position. Mr. Doerkson cited provincial debt of about $180.9 billion by the end of this fiscal year, and any tax relief will be weighed against that. Our Budget 2027 submission asked for tariff resilience, electricity capacity and action on street crime, and we will press for the PST decisions to be settled before the budget is tabled.

Other items to watch

  • Income tax: raising the basic personal exemption to $32,000 is described as the first legislative priority. How it is paid for has not been explained.
  • Productivity Mega Deduction (September 15): immediate expensing of a much wider set of capital assets, including software, computer equipment and research and development. The government says about two-thirds of capital assets now qualify, up from roughly 15 per cent, and that the marginal effective tax rate on new investment falls from 13 to 6.4 per cent. It is described as permanent, and the estimated cost is $36 billion over five years. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce called it “a moment we’ve been waiting for.” Analysts note that it defers tax rather than cancelling it, so the benefit is largely one of timing and cash flow.
  • Bill C-40, defence procurement (introduced October 6): would make the Defence Investment Agency a Crown corporation with its own board and greater authority over contracts, and create an Associate Minister of National Defence for Procurement. The bill is not law yet. The release does not mention small and medium-sized businesses, which is the gap our Defence Procurement Forum in Q1 2027 is meant to address.
  • Foreign buyer ban: a decision on the January 1, 2027 expiry is pending; see outlook section above.
  • Immigration levels plan, 2027–2029: due to be tabled by November 1. Members who depend on temporary foreign workers or international students should watch for it.

EVENTS OF NOTE FOR POLICY WATCHERS

  • October 27–29: Canadian Chamber of Commerce National Conference & Policy Forum, Empress Hotel, Victoria. Two Kelowna policies are before delegates: “Countering the Cost of Crime on Canadian Small Business” and “Powering Canada’s Future.” We will publish results when they are in.
  • November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
  • November 5: Federal budget.
  • November 6–10: Elections BC final count, including mail-in ballots that will decide Kelowna Centre. Final results are due November 18.
  • Later in November: Swearing-in of the new provincial government and cabinet (date to be confirmed).
  • November 25, 7:30–10:00 a.m.: Kelowna Chamber Policy Development Forum, Sandman Hotel, Kelowna. Register
  • December 8, 11:30 a.m.–1:30 p.m.: Chief Economist of Central 1 Bryan Yu will address members at the last OC Luncheon of 2026. Register
  • February or March 2027: Defence Procurement Forum Okanagan, Kelowna. The date has moved from early November and will be confirmed.

FEDERAL BUDGET, NOVEMBER 5: OUTLOOK

Finance Minister Champagne will table the federal budget on November 5, two days after the U.S. midterms and very likely, with the trade dispute unresolved. The numbers will be the first test. The Parliamentary Budget Officer says deficits are about $3 billion a year deeper than she projected in June, and that the deficit will exceed $63 billion in 2030-31 against the $53 billion Ottawa projected in April. The government’s target is an operating budget in balance by 2027-28; the PBO’s latest outlook says 2028-29. Debt charges are expected to rise from $55.6 billion to $76.1 billion over five years.

The budget’s first test is a deficit path the Parliamentary Budget Officer can verify.

 

<p style="style=" font-size:18px;"="">The PBO also says Ottawa’s definition of capital spending is too broad, inflating it by nearly $100 billion over six years. That matters because the split between operating and capital spending determines what counts toward balance. Economists have asked for a deficit path the PBO can verify.

For Kelowna members, we will be watching:

  • Trade support: whether the August measures are extended or expanded, and who can access them.
  • Business taxes: legislation to implement the Productivity Mega Deduction, and any offsetting measures.
  • Defence: the pace of spending toward the 5 per cent of GDP target and how procurement reform reaches small and medium-sized suppliers.
  • Foreign buyer ban: whether the budget addresses the January 1 expiry.
  • Housing and immigration: how the budget lines up with the immigration levels plan due by November 1.

The budget will not be public until it is tabled. We will report on it in the next issue. Thank you for reading this month’s Policy Horizon. Questions? hello@kelownachamber.org